Anarchist Black Cat

Just read an article in CNN on soldiers being killed in a barraks.

The Article spoke of increased activity by "dissident repubicans".

What is going on, have things stared to heat up again? why? Is the economic crisis inflaming old tensions?

I think this has been brewing a long time, there have been reports for the last year or so from the security agencies warning that dissident republicans were preparing to make more attacks. As far as I know it doesn't represent a growing period of strength for the anti-Agreement republican groups, but I could be wrong.

The "dissidents" have been trying to pull off stuff like this for a good while now - the only thing about this attack that is unusual is that it succeeded - typically their actions in recent years have ended in farce / arrest through infiltration. They are very isolated from the public, the only place where they've had any apparent success in attracting support is in embattled catholic working class enclaves in majority protestant areas (such as Antrim where this happened).

So, in sum, I don't think that this attack represents much of a change in dissident strength, aside from the unusual level of competency and that might prove to be a one-off / fluke.

As the dissidents are so isolated from public support, I'd guess that the most likely consequence is that repression against such groups will be turned up to 11 (it's always at 10!).

Seems it was quite a callous and bloody attack.



It's the first time British troops have been killed in the six counties by republicans since 1997. There's been an increase in CIRA/RIRA attacks in the 18 months and specifically in the last few weeks there's been quite a few articles/news reports on the increased dissident republican threat.

In November 2007, an off duty PSNI officer was shot in Derry and then a week later another PSNI office was shot in Dungannon, Co Tyrone. In June 2008, a landmine attack on a PSNI patrol-car in Rosslea, County Fermanagh injured two officers. In August, a rocket-propelled grenade attack on a PSNI patrol in Lisnaskea, County Fermanagh left 3 officers requiring treatment for minor injuries and shock. In November, there was blast-bomb attack against Lurgan PSNI station.

I don't think the economic crisis has anything really to do with the increased dissident activity.

The attack is obviously counter-productive, futile and disgusting by also attempting to justify the attack on civilian workers, one which no anarchist should support.



It was probably carried out my ex-provisional IRA members who would only have the expertise to carry this out.

A report on the main Italian evening news said the attack had been claimed by the RIRA (while showing pictures of Adams and wibbling on about a resurgence in violence between Catholics and Protestants)...

It is likely that the dissidents have been growing, but only in a relatively low key way. They remain small organisations with little popular support.

There are a lot of disillusioned Provos out there and it only takes a very small percentage of them going back to the gun to boost the capacity of the dissidents considerably. This attack will probably help them with recruitment efforts in those quarters a little more - one of the chief reasons why none of the dissident factions have really taken off is that they are perceived by old Provos as incompetents.

The other recruitment stream open to them is the perennial favourite of armed republican groups, angry young working class men. Even during the "dog days" of dissident republicanism, they were able to attract a fairly constant trickle of them. And of course acted essentially as a conduit to prison for them. It's likely, with Provisional Sinn Fein having lost any residue of radicalism and with much of the potential recruitment base being too young to have any real memory of the struggle that used to give prominent Provos credibility, that they have been able to up that recruitment in recent times.

Their chief problem is that there is no viable space for a Provo style armed struggle in the present climate. There just isn't the appetite for it on the ground and they don't have that solid 10% plus of the population behind them that the Provos had. They don't have the weaponry or the personnel. They are heavily infiltrated by state agents. Their perceived lack of competence was a relatively minor problem compared to all that, but it was real.

Interestingly, it seems that there are now other minor Republican dissident groups operating as well as the RIRA and CIRA. The INLA remain on ceasefire.

I recall earlier in the week there were reports that UK Special Forces soldiers were about to be moved back in to the country. Do people think this is a response to that?

no absolutely not. Your statement also implies that special forces have been removed from the north which is obviously not the case.

There are still arond 5,000 troops in the north which is pre-1969. For mainly training and operations abroad.

Australian Media said about it (in SBS was second theme, in others was first internationla theme). Told about the "Real IRA" and showed Gordon Brown and a former IRA Sinn Fein official.

A particularly repellent part of the op was that, having shot the squaddies, the gunmen then appear to have deliberately shot the two pizza delivery guys (a local 19 year lad and a 32 year old Polish guy who is in critical condition). The RIRA's statement to the Tribune last night claiming responsibility, tried to justify this on the grounds that they were "collaborating with British rule" (by delivering pizzas to them). Knowing the gallows humour in the North, this will doubtless spawn a whole string of pizza delivery related gags but, jokes aside, it's pretty dire stuff nonetheless.

The shooting of the pizza workers (Domino's for the curious) and the subsequent defence of this in the RIRA statement claiming responsibility is extraordinary. When I heard the initial reports I'd presumed we'd get a line about collatoral damage from RIRA, not a justification for what seems to be the deliberate shooting of two low paid and precarious workers for 'collaboration'! The RIRA military campaign is in any case a counter productive dead end with almost no popular support whatsoever but the targetting of these workers just demonstrates how far to the right their militarism is.

This is the news story that I was referring to.

At least over here, this was shortened to "special forces return to NI" and I wondered whether this might have been the catalyst for the attack. Then, to go after pizza delivery boys is a special kind of fuckwittery, though, so I might be wasting my time thinking there might be anything deep going on.

It's more likely the other way round, that the request to deploy the SSR was in response to intelligence that the RIRA were preparing a "spectacular".

It appears that the squaddies had established a habit of ordering pizzas on Saturday night, so the likely sequence is that someone locally has spotted this, passed it on to the RIRA who've done a bit of surveillance to establish the pattern, plan the attack and then requisition the necessary weapons (probably the stage at which the state got an inkling that something was in the pipeline, at a guess). All of which would take a number of weeks. But of course this is all speculation.

I don't think it's any coincidence that in a week where it was announced that 'special forces' were being recalled to Ireland from Iraq and Afghanistan and that 15% of the MI5 budget was still going on Ireland that this attack has occurred.

These people have to justify their budgests and existence so there is little doubt in my mind that there was a hidden hand at work at some point in the RIRA chain of command on this attack.The anti-Agreement republicans have spent the last few years shooting each other and extorting drug dealers so I find it hard to believe that they have suddenly devloped such levels of sophistication.